Forecasting and Impact Analysis of the Development Trends of China's New Energy Electric Vehicles Based on Time Series Causal Analysis

New energy electric vehicles with numerous properties have experienced explosive growth in recent years. This research constructs an ISM model to analyze the key factors influencing the new energy vehicle market and develops both a Winters' additive model and an ARIMA model to forecast the development of the NEV industry from 2023 to 2033. The results show that, the development of the new energy vehicles in the following ten years as a growth trend. Moreover, Granger causality tests, conducted within the VAR framework, revealed that NEV sales growth and market share significantly impact policy effectiveness and market dynamics. Simultaneously, the environmental impact was assessed using a LCA model, which indicates that the development of new energy vehicles is beneficial to the ecological environment. The results contribute to the theoretical and empirical understanding of the NEV market, providing valuable insights for policy makers and industry stakeholders.