Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation

We investigate the influence of anthropogenic <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msub><mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msub> </mml:math> concentration fluctuations on the likelihood of climate-related disasters. We calibrate annual incidence rates against global disasters and <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msub><mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msub> </mml:math> growth spanning from 1960 to 2022 based on a dynamic panel logit model. We also study the sensitivity of disaster incidence to stochastic carbon dynamics consistent with IPCC-projected climate outcomes for 2100. The key insight is that present and lagged <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msub><mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msub> </mml:math> growth contains valuable information about the likelihood of future disaster events. We further show that lowering carbon stock uncertainty by dampening the persistence or the variability of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msub><mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msub> </mml:math> concentration has a first-order impact on mitigating expected disaster risk.