Pioneer advantage or late-mover advantage? An examination of the interplay between policy diffusion sequence and policy outcomes

In policy diffusion research, considerable focus has been placed on the mechanisms and motivations underlying diffusion, yet there is a notable dearth of analysis linking the diffusion process with policy outcomes. This prompts an important inquiry: Who fares better in terms of policy outcomes—the pioneer or the late mover? Our study investigates China’s River Chief System policy and classifies cities as either pioneers, followers, or laggards according to their position in the diffusion process. Our quantitative analysis of 142 cities indicates that pioneers achieve the most favorable policy outcomes, while laggards are associated with the least favorable results. Further examination of the political incentives driving pioneer advantage suggests that pioneers are driven by political aspirations, followers are driven by political signaling, and laggards are driven by political pressure. This research deepens understanding of policy diffusion by elucidating the interplay between diffusion sequence and policy outcomes, and offers significant insights for policymakers aiming to formulate effective diffusion strategies.