Exploring the dynamics of socio-technical transitions: Advancing grid-connected wind and solar energy adoption in Nigeria

Globally, countries are transitioning their national electricity grid system to meet the obligations of the Paris Agreement. National grid-connected renewable electricity provides an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, in a developing country like Nigeria, renewable energies such as solar and wind power can play a critical role not only in transitioning away from fossil-fuel based electricity systems but also to address prevalent energy security challenges, electricity supply deficit and gaps in energy access. Policies, plans, and strategies to ensure grid-connected renewable energy have been put in place, but these measures have proved ineffective. Likewise, there are limited studies that investigate these transition problems, including drivers and enablers from a developing country perspective. This research fills that gap in knowledge by investigating these transition dynamics through a qualitative approach applying the multi-level perspective framework. Thirty-one (31) key energy and non-energy actors were interviewed, and the transcripts thematically analysed. Findings indicate that there is prospect for Nigeria to transform its electricity system. However, there are major deterrents including institutional, infrastructural, incumbent electricity system instability and economic barriers. The paper highlights that there is a level of regime stability/instability that will enable renewable energy development. In addition, practical and policy insights are offered to overcome identified challenges towards accelerating electricity system transformation. Future studies should also explore the degree of instability, stability and change in developing country settings necessary for energy transition to occur. Finally, this paper advances debates in energy transition and socio-technical system studies. • Grid-connected wind and solar energy are understudied in sociotechnical transition from a developing country perspective. • A modified multi-level perspective framework for national grid-connected renewable electricity generation is presented. • Incumbent electricity regime instability plays a significant role in deterring renewable energy development.