Modeling the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Mangkono (Xanthostemon Verdugonianus) in Caraga Region Using Species Distribution Modeling Technique

Mangkono (Xanthostemon verdugonianus) is a hardwood species indigenous to the Philippines. This study uses the Maximum Entropy model to assess the impact of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of Mangkono in the Caraga region. Five models were produced: ones for current condition, two for 2050 (SSP 245 and SSP 585), and two additional for 2070 (SSP 245 and SSP 585). Evaluation using Area Under Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) indicated satisfactory performance, with AUC scores ranging from 0.983 to 0.987 and TSS values from 0.750 to 0.832. According to the results, the potential area is expected to increase under SSP 245 for 2050 and decrease with SSP 585. Both SSP 245 and SSP 585 in 2070 will decrease. Our findings suggest that to effectively manage this species, it is crucial to implement preventive environmental measures and include climate change models into land use and forest management plans.