Identifying future challenges for climate change adaptation through insights from participatory scenario-downscaling in Mumbai

Abstract Populations in many coastal urban areas are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal cities is growing, and, especially in the Global South, these cities are characterised by rapid urbanisation and social inequality. However, the progress of adaptation is lagging, and there is a limited understanding of how future socioeconomic urban developments will affect cities’ social vulnerability and challenges to adaptation. We use the case study of Mumbai to apply a participatory scenario approach, in which we downscale the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) narratives to the local level. Our results stress the relevance of addressing social inequality in urban change processes across different sectors, including labour, housing, transport, and health and streamlining urban planning across different governance scales. Our study lays the ground for integrated modelling of future vulnerability and exposure scenarios and the development of local adaptation pathways.