Integrating the effects of climate change into long-term strategic forest management planning using a process-based stand model

Integrating climate change into strategic forest management is critical for predicting forest dynamics and maintaining resource availability. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the best approach for integrating climate change effects into strategic-level forest management planning. In this study, we propose a novel approach to incorporate climate change into a strategic forest planning model, Woodstock, using a parsimonious set of climate-sensitive stand yield tables and transition rules derived from the PICUS stand simulation model, calibrated for the Acadian forest region. Climate-sensitive yield tables were generated for a baseline and two climate forcing scenarios to dynamically capture climate effects on forest growth and composition. Initial forest conditions were grouped into four age classes for each stand type, with future conditions determined by three transition periods. Stand simulations predicted a significant shift toward warm-adapted species, with red maple, white pine, and yellow birch becoming more dominant, while cold-adapted species like balsam fir and spruce declined by 2120. Under high climate forcing, the merchantable wood volume is projected to decrease by 50%, indicating potential shortages and economic risks. The incorporation of climate change uncertainty into strategic forest planning is essential to reduce the risk of overutilization of forest resources. This research offers a novel and practical approach to integrating climate change into forest planning models.