Reducing demand: a quantitative analysis of energy service demand indicators in sufficiency-oriented scenarios

Abstract A reduction of energy service demand in all sectors is required to reach ambitious climate and other sustainability goals. A growing number of energy and climate scenarios does include detailed assumptions and quantified parameters for the reduction of energy service demand. However, the indicators and units used to measure the demand reduction potential of energy services differ from study to study and are thus difficult to compare. To help fill the existing research gap around the assumptions and quantification of sufficiency potentials, we analyse quantified European-focused sufficiency scenarios that are ambitious with respect to energy demand reduction. We propose twelve main service level indicators for comparison and create a database for the industry, transport, building and food sectors which includes values for these indicators from all identified scenarios. Achieving a common understanding of such indicators in the research community and more transparency in published scenario assumptions, input and output parameters, would improve comparability and streamline data research efforts. The resulting final energy demand in European sufficiency scenarios varies between 37 and 65 GJ/capita/year, which corresponds to reductions of −55 percent and −26 percent, respectively, by the target year (2040/2045/2050), averaging −46 percent. In European sufficiency scenarios, values for energy service demand in all sectors differ significantly, except for average distance travelled per person. The highest assumed reduction can be found for food indicators with an average 60 percent reduction compared to historic values. A comparison with published values for decent living standards shows that assumed values in European sufficiency scenarios are significantly higher. The analysed European sufficiency scenarios in this paper provide a different perspective on future values for energy service demand indicators than decent living standard approaches. The combination of those perspectives can inform discussions on a sustainable consumption space that climate policy is aiming for.