Study on the spatial distribution patterns and formation mechanism of religious sites based on XGBoostSHAP and spatial econometric models: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Religious sites are a significant embodiment of a nation’s faith and culture, with their spatial distribution resulting from the interplay of sociocultural, historical, and environmental factors. Preserving religious heritage aids in the transmission of ethnic culture and promotes the development of cultural diversity. This study employs kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of religious sites in the Yangtze River Delta. Additionally, it utilizes the XGBoostSHAP machine learning model to investigate the importance of the driving factors, and combines this with spatial econometric models for validation. The results reveal that: (1) Religious sites in the Yangtze River Delta exhibit significant clustering with an irregular distribution. Coastal areas have a high density, forming a beltlike distribution centered around Wenzhou and Taizhou, while inland areas are sparse, creating an edge effect; (2) The spatial distribution of religious sites is primarily influenced by social and historical cultural factors, with minimal impact from natural factors. Policy support and public transportation have the greatest influence, while ethnic culture also play important roles; (3) Among natural factors, Higher slope values and NDVI, along with lower elevation, are conducive to the clustering of religious sites. although developed water systems may pose disaster risks. Social factors such as policy protection, transportation accessibility, economic development level, and moderate population density are crucial. Historical and cultural factors, including ethnic religious cultural heritage and tourism, are also significant. This study is of great importance for formulating reasonable strategies for the protection and sustainable development of religious cultural heritage in the context of rapid urbanization.