Performance comparison of machine learning and deep learning models for supply chain tier order quantity prediction: Emphasis on tree-based and CNN-BILSTM approaches

This study conducts a comparative analysis of various machine learning and deep learning models for predicting order quantities in supply chain tiers. The models employed include XGBoost, Random Forest, CNN-BiLSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), Bidirectional GRU (BiGRU), Conv1D-BiLSTM, Attention-LSTM, Transformer, and LSTM-CNN hybrid models. Experimental results show that the XGBoost, Random Forest, CNN-BiLSTM, and MLP models exhibit superior predictive performance. In particular, the XGBoost model demonstrates the best results across all performance metrics, attributed to its effective learning of complex data patterns and variable interactions. Although the KNN model also shows perfect predictions with zero error values, this indicates a need for further review of data processing procedures or model validation methods. Conversely, the BiLSTM, BiGRU, and Transformer models exhibit relatively lower performance. Models with moderate performance include Linear Regression, RNN, Conv1D-BiLSTM, Attention-LSTM, and the LSTM-CNN hybrid model, all displaying relatively higher errors and lower coefficients of determination (R²). As a result, tree-based models (XGBoost, Random Forest) and certain deep learning models like CNN-BiLSTM are found to be effective for predicting order quantities in supply chain tiers. In contrast, RNN-based models (BiLSTM, BiGRU) and the Transformer show relatively lower predictive power. Based on these results, we suggest that tree-based models and CNN-based deep learning models should be prioritized when selecting predictive models in practical applications.