Future phenological changes of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes in agro-ecosystem under climate change scenarios

The objective of this study was to predict future phenological changes of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes in agro-ecosystem under climate change scenarios. Environmental shifts driven by climate change are affecting the phenology of species inhabiting agricultural ecosystems. A quantitative analysis of phenological change is necessary because these phenological changes can impact agricultural productivity. In this study, we monitored the adult flight phenology of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes, which were selected as climate change indicator species of agricultural ecosystem in South Korea, and simulated future phenological changes using SSP scenarios. The results indicate that the first flight of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes are expected to occur earlier in the future compared to past by 4-49 days and 4-50 days, respectively, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Phenological shifts were found to be more pronounced in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5. The analysis showed that, compared to the results of the RCP 8.5 scenario from previous studies, the flight timing of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes has been further advanced under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Long-term monitoring is essential to analyze the impacts of climate change on agricultural ecosystems. The prediction methods and results of phenological changes in agricultural ecosystems presented in this study are expected to contribute to the development of climate adaptation strategies in agriculture.