Establishment of a foundation for risk assessment in fisheries issues and identification of the impact of marine climate change

Global climate change is accelerating warming, and our oceans are particularly affected by climate change compared to other regions. By the end of the 21st century, the pace of climate change is expected to accelerate. Therefore, by creating and analyzing basic data for risk assessment in the fisheries sector according to climate change, we intend to lay the foundation for promotion of risk assessment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes to shift from vulnerability assessment to climate risk management for climate adaptation, and climate risk consists of risk, exposure, and vulnerability. In the fisheries sector, it is difficult to clearly distinguish between sensitivity and adaptability due to the interrelationships among biological attributes, so various definitions and measurement methods are used. In the case of coastal fishing, a precise analysis of water temperature variability and fisheries resource fluctuations due to climate change is required. In the case of aquaculture, it is necessary to develop technology to respond to high water temperatures according to climate risk. To advance the climate risk assessment in the fisheries issues, it is necessary to prepare detailed evaluation indicators according to the definition of IPCC and switch to the AR6 SSP scenario. Therefore, the current climate risk methodology in the fisheries issues will be summarized, and the latest data (fishing production, fisherman survey analysis, model results under climate change scenarios, etc.) will be used to lay the foundation for risk assessment in the fisheries issues according to climate change.