The impact of carbon neutrality timing on climate extremes in East Asia

This study analyzes future climate change in East Asia using carbon neutral scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP]1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, and SSP5-3.4-OS) and evaluates how earlier carbon neutrality could mitigate extreme climate risks. The SSP1-1.9, which successfully attains the objectives of the Paris Agreement, demonstrates temperature stabilization at a 1.5°C warming level by the end of the 21st century. Conversely, other scenarios indicate higher levels of warming, with SSP1-2.6 resulting in 2.0°C and both SSP4-3.4 and SSP5-3.4-OS leading to a 2.5°C warming level. In East Asia, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are expected to be more severe if the timeline for achieving carbon neutrality is delayed. Additional warming of 0.5°C and 1.0°C could lead to an approximately 35% and 50% increase, respectively, in vulnerabilities associated with extreme temperatures. Furthermore, vulnerabilities related to extreme precipitation could increase by approximately 25% and 40%, respectively. These findings emphasize the importance of early and active carbon neutrality policies in reducing the vulnerability of East Asian countries to extreme climate events, contributing to more effective regional climate risk management and adaptation strategies. It is recommended that future research focuses on conducting higher-resolution regional studies and a more comprehensive analysis of carbon reduction scenarios.