Development of a future weather database based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios for assessing climate change vulnerability of agricultural infrastructure

The World Economic Forum (WEF) report predicts extreme weather and severe changes in Earth's systems as the most serious global risks in the short and long term. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and damage from extreme weather is increasing. Korea mandates climate change adaptation measures at national and local levels, and the Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) is leading efforts to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in rural water and agricultural production infrastructure. The KRC plans to update its vulnerability assessment using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report. This study selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on national climate change standard scenarios and the the Rural Development Administration’s (RDA) GCMs for climate change vulnerability assessment of agricultural production infrastructure. Downscaled data based on observation stations and a 1-km grid were constructed and evaluated for reproducibility using key meteorological variables (precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation). Downscaled data based on observation stations and grid-based data were successfully constructed using 18 GCMs and Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) data from the RDA. Scenario comparisons (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were also conducted. The results of this study can serve as foundation data for national climate adaptation policies and the climate change vulnerability assessment of agricultural production infrastructure.