Dynamics Influencing Factors and Sustainable Development Strategies in Population Shrinking Cities of Jiangsu Province, China

Studies on urban shrinkage in eastern China lack relevant contributions. This study investigates population dynamics in Jiangsu Province, focusing on county-level cities to understand the factors influencing urban population size. It developed a multidimensional indicator system per 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 statistical data, incorporating road network accessibility, socio-economic levels, resident income, public services, and the built environment. Employing static fixed effects models and dynamic panel regression models, it analyses trends and evolutionary patterns of permanent population changes. The findings indicate an overall increase in the permanent population over the past decade, although the growth rate has slowed in the last five years. Notably, there is a significant spatial clustering of population growth and contraction, often aligned with high-speed transportation corridors. Unlike existing research findings, the urban shrinkage pattern in Jiangsu Province is unique. Some cities in northern Jiangsu exhibit a ‘relative contraction’ pattern, where population decline coexists with high economic growth and spatial expansion. Key short-term factors influencing population size include the city’s economic level and residents’ disposable income, while long-term factors encompass city level, industrial structure, and transportation networks. Small towns exhibit ‘close-range mobility’, with primary short-term influences stemming from residents’ income, public service quality, and intercity transportation accessibility. Indeed, long-term factors primarily reflect economic development quality and urban employment rates.