Assessing Potential and Impact Factors Driving Chadian Gum Arabic International Trade Based on the Augmented Gravity Model

Chadian Gum Arabic is an essential export commodity with significant potential for international trade, improving living conditions for Sahelian populations in various sectors. However, there is a lack of examination of its potential impact factors of sustainability in regional and international contexts from a dynamic perspective. This paper aims to address this gap by using regional data from 1997 to 2021 of Chadian Gum Arabic international trade and applying the augmented gravity model. The analyses demonstrate that the multiple regression model explains a 15% variance in trade value, accounting for all the predictors input into the model. Although this explains a relatively small portion of the variation, the ANOVA summary for regression model exhibits high significance (α = 0.05), with GDP and border contributing significantly to trade value in the multivariate analysis of variance model. To verify the robustness and accuracy of the results, we used Bonferroni as a baseline and conducted MANOVA. The model was first checked using the box test of equality (Mauchly’s test of sphericity), which significantly increased the rejection rate. This was confirmed by tests of within-subjects effects on the Huynh–Feldt, which had a significance level of 0.0002. The results highlight the significant contributing factors in Gum Arabic sales, emphasizing the need for policymakers to adapt strategies to promote economic growth.