When is optimistic Expectation Most Beneficial? Optimistic expectations, conscientiousness and academic performance in a sample of freshman students

Abstract Previous studies have shown that a significant proportion of first-year students tend to maintain favorable self-assessments regarding future performance, displaying a pronounced optimism. This longitudinal study examined how expectations of future performance among freshman students are associated with their actual end-of-degree achievements. Based on the investment theory, we also examined the moderating role of the personality trait of conscientiousness in this relationship. Expectations of future performance at the end-of-first year and conscientiousness levels of 115 freshman students were assessed as predictors of their average academic score at the end-of-the degree. Multiple hierarchical regressions demonstrated that after controlling for high school scores, students who expected better end-of-first-year grades achieved actual better scores at graduation than those who provided lower estimates of their achievements. Results also showed that conscientiousness moderated the expectation-performance relationship, so that it was stronger for students with higher expectations than for students with lower ones. Higher levels of conscientiousness were more beneficial for optimistic students than students with pessimistic views of their performance.