Exploring relationships between conflict intensity, forced displacement, and healthcare attacks: a retrospective analysis from Syria, 2016–2022

We find that healthcare facilities are not avoided during conflict (as obliged under IHL), and that healthcare attacks significantly precede an escalation of general conflict in the same area. Healthcare attacks are also significantly associated with displacement for months following the attacks, even when accounting for conflict levels. Based on these findings, we present a framework outlining one pathway through which healthcare attacks may contribute to larger conflict tactics. Our findings highlight the critical role of healthcare infrastructure in conflict and reaffirm calls to hold perpetrators of these attacks accountable.