Belarusian opposition in exile will likely fragment

Significance Opposition leaders not included in Tsikhanouskaya's inner circle are organised within the CC, where they are trying to establish contacts with potential constituencies, including the Belarusian diaspora abroad. They also communicate with Belarusian military units currently serving within the Ukrainian armed forces. Impacts The Belarusian component within the Ukrainian armed forces is likely to become more visible in the media. The opposition in exile will likely seek the support of the recently emigrated political refugees, many of whom are in Poland. Poland and Lithuania may become more cautious in accepting new political refugees from Belarus to reduce the potential for unrest.