Malawi may be able to manage risks of political unrest

Significance This comes just months after the unexpected death in office of UTM leader and national Vice President Saulos Chilima, which has created a power vacuum within the UTM and dramatically shifted calculations ahead of the 2025 elections. Impacts The power vacuum within the UTM has created a sense of panic among senior leaders, which may encourage resort to desperate measures. Serious political violence is only likely if the police overreact to isolated instances of unrest; thus far, there are no signs of this. There is no evidence Vice President Michael Usi was involved in the plot, and his enmity with Kaliati makes their collaboration unlikely.