Asia’s coal use is likely to peak by 2030

Significance This import strength is more an ‘insurance policy’ than an expectation of strong demand growth. Indeed, China is nearing peak coal consumption. Coal imports are also growing strongly in other Asian markets, especially India and South-east Asia. Impacts Major exporters Indonesia, Australia and Russia will soon have less coal revenue to fund high demand for more renewable energy spending. With Asia accounting for around 80% of global coal exports, lower regional consumption could mean exporters struggle to find markets. Indonesia is particularly exposed to the downturn, as its coal typically has a lower calorific value and produces higher carbon emissions. Weaker coal trade could lower coal prices, putting downward pressure on natural gas prices, particularly if renewables take market share.