Chinese-US military dialogue will face obstacles

Significance Bilateral military communications are improving following meetings between senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and US officials, which came after Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden last year agreed to resume engagement. However, a second term for Donald Trump could upend the fragile rapprochement amid elevated conflict risks in the South China Sea and Chinese cooperation with Russia. Impacts The Pentagon will press for direct contact between the US Indo-Pacific Command and the PLA Eastern Command, which covers the Taiwan Strait. The escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran could exacerbate Chinese-US tensions, as Beijing has close ties with Iran. The Chinese and US militaries will intensify competition to deepen ties with the Global South, particularly in South-east Asia and Africa.