North Korean troops for Russia will raise challenges

Significance Although North Korea has supplied Russia with arms throughout the war, the extent of potential troop support remains unclear, as is their battlefield impact. Despite possible military benefits, Pyongyang’s move also carries considerable downside risks. Impacts If North Korean casualties mount, this new grievance for Kim’s impoverished subjects may cause a backlash; defections are another risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin will avoid encouraging Kim’s adventurism on the peninsula, let alone further his nuclear ambitions. China will also likely try to temper Pyongyang’s actions, given a 1961 mutual defence pledge that it aims to avoid having to honour. Yoon’s hawkish instinct to retaliate begs the question of how far Kim’s latest move really threatens Seoul’s security, rather than Kyiv’s. Amid lukewarm South Korean public opinion on Ukraine, the opposition -- which controls parliament -- may oppose more commitment to Kyiv.