Venezuela’s Maduro relies on ever-smaller support base

Significance This represented a high-profile moment for Maduro on the international stage, despite Brazil’s veto of Venezuelan membership of BRICS following the contested presidential elections. However, it comes at a moment of significant domestic political weakness. Impacts Efforts to normalise a disputed third term will be undermined by the pervasive sense of unease generated by a lack of opposition protests. Maduro will aim to capitalise on goodwill and formal and informal deals struck in Kazan. US sanctions will help to ensure loyalty among the small circle of individuals who have the most to lose from regime change.