Japanese politics will become less stable

Significance Continued public anger regarding the LDP’s slush fund scandal led to opposition party gains and caused the LDP to fall short of a majority. The LDP now faces parliamentary gridlock, with the fates of the party and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba unclear. Impacts Ishiba will work hard to attract votes ahead of a special Diet session, to be convened within 30 days, to elect a prime minister formally. Opposition Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda will contrive to deny Ishiba the support he needs. The supplementary budget and a related economic package must be passed immediately and next year’s budget must be set by end-2024. Elections to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Upper House will be held in June and July 2025, respectively. Another Lower House election is likely within twelve months to create a stable basis for government.