Probabilistic Analysis of Electricity Production from a Photovoltaic–Wind Energy Mix for Sustainable Transport Needs

Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) are characterized by high unevenness, cyclicality, and seasonality of energy production. Due to the trends in the production of electricity itself and the utilization of hydrogen, distributed generation systems are preferred. They can be connected to the energy distribution network or operate without its participation (off-grid). However, in both cases, such distributed energy sources should be balanced in terms of power generation. According to the authors, it is worth combining different RESs to ensure the stability of energy production from such a mix. Within the mix, the sources can complement and replace each other. According to the authors, an effective system for generating energy from RESs should contain at least two different sources and energy storage. The purpose of the analyses and calculations performed is to determine the characteristics of energy generation from a photovoltaic system and a wind turbine with a specific power and geographical location in the Lublin region in Poland. Another important goal is to determine the substitutability of the sources studied. Probabilistic analysis will be used to determine the share of given energy sources in the energy mix and will allow us to estimate the size of the stationary energy storage. The objective of these procedures is to strive for the highest possible share of renewable energy in the total energy required to charge electric vehicle fleets and to produce low-emission hydrogen for transportation. The article proves that the appropriately selected components of the photovoltaic and wind energy mix located in the right place lead to the self-balancing of the local energy network using a small energy storage. The conclusions drawn from the conducted research can be used by RES developers who intend to invest in new sources of power generation to produce low-emission hydrogen. This is in line with the current policy of the European Union aimed at climate and energy transformation of many companies using green hydrogen.