The Effects of Tree Shade on Vineyard Microclimate and Grape Production: A Novel Approach to Sun Radiation Modelling as a Response to Climate Change

Climate change threatens established agricultural systems and production, driving the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Vitiforestry, an alternative cultivation system combining trees and shrubs in the vineyard, promotes environmental sustainability and offers a possible adaptation strategy to climate change. This work scrutinizes the impact of shading on vineyards using an Integrated Model of Vineyard Shading and Climate Adaptation (IMVSCA), supported by a system dynamics approach. This model estimates solar radiation and computes daily and annual trends of insolation, air temperature, and relative humidity to shading and its influence on vineyard growth stages. It also assesses the effects of shading-related extreme weather events and the occurrence of grapevine disease development driven by daily weather conditions and zoning adaptations. The pilot results depict the effects of tree shading on vineyards, namely the impacts of solar radiation and air temperature on vine phenology, pollination, pollen germination, fungal diseases, and the complimentary indicators of grape production and quality. Our modeling framework and findings suggest that vitiforestry could be an interesting climate change adaptation technique, providing a starting point for further studies in this scope.