A Factor Two Difference in 21st‐Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5‐8.5)
Abstract The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea‐level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high‐end warming scenario (SSP5‐8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt‐albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea‐level rise.
Authors
- M. R. van den Broeke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4662-7565)
- Quentin Glaude (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1719-3270)
- Brice P. Y. Noel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7159-5369)
- Christoph Kittel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6586-9784)
- Heiko Goelzer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5878-9599)
- Xavier Fettweis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4140-3813)
- Alison Delhasse (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0961-1601)
- Martin Olesen
- Ruth Mottram (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1016-1997)
- Willem Jan van de Berg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8232-2040)
- Nicolaj Hansen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4448-8891)
- Charles Amory (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5906-4303)
Institutions
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Liège (BE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO)
- Danish Meteorological Institute (DK)
- NORCE Research AS (NO)
- Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- Université Grenoble Alpes (FR)
- UCLouvain (BE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Published
- 2024-11-21
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111902
- Citations
- 13
- Primary Topic
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 4.89
Funders
- Waalse Gewest
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
- Novo Nordisk Fonden