Beyond linear pathways: An interconnected framework for understanding the climate‐migration nexus

The 2023 World Development Report (hereafter, WDR 2023) adopts a ‘Motive and Match’ analytical framework to categorize migration into four distinct types (World Bank, 2023). This framework contributes to developing targeted policies for managing migration more effectively. Chapter 3 of the WDR 2023, with its forward-looking perspective towards the coming decades, highlights demographic shifts and climate change as two major forces shaping future migration trends. The chapter points out that migration drivers interact in complex ways, where poverty, state fragility, population growth and climate change not only coexist but often amplify each other. However, the chapter's framing of climate change's impact on migration, primarily through the channels of income decline and habitability threats, tends to oversimplify the complex ways in which climate change shapes migration. This approach somewhat glosses over the multifaceted effects of climate change on migration decision-making. Here, I propose a refined analytical framework of the climate-migration nexus, which delves into the environmental, economic and social dimensions of climate change-induced migration (Figure 1). These factors intertwine across various scales to shape vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities in the face of climate change (İçduygu & Gören, 2023; McLeman et al., 2021). By embracing this approach, I argue for a more nuanced and interconnected understanding of the complex dynamics at play within the climate-migration nexus rather than framing it as a linear process from climate change to migration. Climate change's environmental impacts are the most straightforward, triggering migration through various channels (Black et al., 2011). The existing literature has identified a wide range of natural disasters that drive migration (McLeman, 2019). In 2022 alone, floods, extreme storms, droughts and wildfires internally displaced over 32 million people worldwide, marking a significant increase that has doubled since 2018 due to the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters. These figures, reported by the International Displacement Monitoring Center (2023), underscore the dramatic impact of climate events on global displacement, although it is widely known that not all displaced individuals will permanently migrate to new locations. Beyond immediate devastation, gradual changes such as sea-level rise and desertification can compromise living conditions, compelling communities to relocate as their homeland becomes less habitable. As Chapter 3 of the WDR 2023 points out, over 1 billion population living in low-lying cities and settlements are at risk from rising sea levels. In addition, water scarcity, due to altered precipitation patterns and glacial melt, jeopardizes drinking water supplies and agricultural sustainability, pushing communities to move towards more hospitable regions. The health risks associated with climate change, from heatwaves to the spread of vector-borne diseases, add another layer of complexity, as they disproportionately affect the most vulnerable, further straining public health systems and prompting migration for health security (World Bank, 2023). The economic repercussions of climate change serve as a significant catalyst for migration (Marotzke et al., 2020). In the developing world where subsistence agriculture is the major means of rural livelihoods, the impact of climate change is particularly acute, forcing smallholders to seek alternative livelihoods. Changes in weather patterns can devastate crop production, exacerbating food insecurity and economic distress (Morton, 2007). Climate-driven fisheries production reduction will increase the vulnerability of those with limited adaptive capacity (Lam et al., 2020). Such declines in production underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to enhance resilience against the disruptive effects of climate variability. Moreover, the economic impact of climate change reaches beyond agriculture, affecting sectors such as tourism and the hospitality that are essential to the economic vitality of many regions vulnerable to climate change. One example is ski resorts, a sector increasingly compromised by the warming climate (François et al., 2023; Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2014). The reduction in natural snowfall and the shortening of seasons suitable for skiing lead not only to economic displacement within these communities but also underscore a broader economic instability induced by climate change. Such cases exemplify the intricate relationship between climate-induced environmental changes and economic dynamics, underscoring how shifts in climate conditions can ripple through the economy, influencing economic displacement and challenging the sustainability of communities dependent on climate-sensitive industries (see the contribution by Wolford, this issue). The social dimensions of climate-induced migration often receive less attention but are crucial for understanding the climate-migration nexus. Conflict and security concerns, fuelled by competition over dwindling natural resources, can escalate into violence, displacing populations and destabilizing regions (Koubi, 2019; Scheffran et al., 2012). As pointed out in Chapter 3 of the WDR 2023, the Sahel region, where climate change exacerbates existing tensions and contributes to conflict, demonstrates the complex link among environmental degradation, social unrest and migration. Erosion of community bonds in the face of repeated climate disasters can lead to a loss of social cohesion. Such decline, coupled with the disruption of traditional ways of life, particularly affects indigenous and rural communities. For example, the Kazakh herders in northern Xinjiang, China, face significant disruptions to their pastoralist lifestyle due to climate change and sedentarization policies. These changes challenge their ability to maintain traditional transhumant- practices, illustrating a broader issue of cultural displacement (Liao, Morreale, et al., 2014; Liao, Sullivan, et al., 2014). However, forced migration is not always the inevitable outcome of climate change. In some cases, communities not only survive but thrive by reshaping their social, economic and institutional frameworks in the aftermath of major disasters. For example, after Hurricane Mitch devastated Honduras in 1998, the indigenous Tawahka community in Krausirpi emerged more robust than before. The hurricane triggered a transformation of community's social structures, leading to more equitable land distribution, diversified income sources and a new land-tenure system, thereby enhancing resilience against future climate shocks (Agrawal, 2011; McSweeney & Coomes, 2011). Even when migration is necessary, it can be managed to bolster community resilience. Native communities in Coastal Alaska and Louisiana, for instance, adopted innovative strategies to manage the impacts of climate-induced migration. They formulated advocacy strategies and practical measures to address the challenges of climate-induced displacement and relocation. These practices ensure that relocation aligns with their culture and values, promoting community-led resettlement programmes that are sustainable and culturally attuned (Maldonado et al., 2014). These examples highlight the potential for communities to actively shape their responses to climate change in ways that reinforce cultural identity and improve overall resilience. The climate-migration nexus framework, integrating environmental, economic and social dimensions, elucidates the intricate interdependencies that drive climate-induced migration. This framework not only enhances our understanding of the complexities inherent in migration but also evolves the WDR 2023's more linear interpretation to address the multifaceted nature of climate change. By acknowledging that environmental, economic and social drivers are not isolated phenomena but deeply intertwined, the nexus approach allows for more holistic and effective policy interventions. Climate change does not operate in a vacuum but interacts dynamically with specific socio-economic contexts. Environmental degradation can lead to economic downturns by reducing crop yield, diminishing grazing resources and compromising tourism, etc. Such economic disruptions can exacerbate social inequalities, leading to increased vulnerability among the poorest communities and potentially sparking conflict or further displacement. Recognizing these connections can help in formulating policies that not only address the immediate impacts of climate change but also strengthen economic resilience and social cohesion. In practical terms, adopting a nexus approach means that when policymakers devise strategies to mitigate the effects of environmental disasters, they need to consider the economic support structures that will prevent long-term social displacement. For example, investments in sustainable livelihoods can reduce vulnerability to climate variability, secure food sources and provide economic opportunities for rural communities, thereby reducing the compulsion for distressed migration (Mallick et al., 2020). Furthermore, the nexus perspective has the potential for leveraging migration not only as a challenge to be managed but also as a proactive strategy for adaptation. As the WDR 2023 points out, when managed properly, migration can serve to redistribute populations from high-risk areas to regions with better economic opportunities and safer environments. The nexus approach advocates for policies that are not only reactive but also proactive, ensuring that interventions are comprehensive and address the root causes of migration. This can lead to a more just and sustainable future where migration is a choice rather than a necessity, and where communities have the capacity to adapt to the changing climate. The opinions expressed in this Commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors, Editorial Board, International Organization for Migration nor John Wiley & Sons. This paper does not rest on any data.