Ciclos fiscais e econômicos do estado do Ceará

We propose studying the comovements of public investment cycles, primary result cycles and short-run growth cycles in the state of Ceará, between 2015 and 2023. Methodologically, tools based on conditional or partial wavelet are used, which makes it possible to highlight varying results over time and with different frequencies. The instruments used for control that allow isolating the desired effects are credit for individuals and legal entities, exports and imports, variation in national economic activity, Selic interest rate, official inflation and state government debt. The main evidence suggests that the investments and fiscal efforts of the Ceará state government have managed to anticipate economic growth cycles in the short and medium term in the same direction. The elasticities associated with public investment are orders of magnitude greater.