An overview of the effects of algorithm use on judgmental biases affecting forecasting

In the realm of forecasting, judgmental biases often hinder efficiency and accuracy. Algorithms present a promising avenue for decision makers to enhance their forecasting performance. In this overview, we scrutinized the occurrence of the most relevant judgmental biases affecting forecasting across 162 papers, drawing from four recent reviews and papers published in forecasting journals, specifically focusing on the use of algorithms. Thirty-three of the 162 papers (20.4%) at least briefly mentioned one of twelve judgmental biases affecting forecasting. Our comprehensive analysis suggests that algorithms can potentially mitigate the adverse impacts of biases inherent in human judgment related to forecasting. Furthermore, these algorithms can leverage biases as an advantage, enhancing forecast accuracy. Intriguing revelations have surfaced, focusing mainly on four biases. By providing timely, relevant, well-performing, and consistent algorithmic advice, people can be effectively influenced to improve their forecasts, considering anchoring, availability, inconsistency, and confirmation bias. The findings highlight the gaps in the current research landscape and provide recommendations for practitioners. They also lay the groundwork for future studies on utilizing algorithms (e.g., large language models) and overcoming judgmental biases to improve forecasting performance.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
Published
2024-11-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.09.007
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.43
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article

An overview of the effects of algorithm use on judgmental biases affecting forecasting

Esther Kaufmann, Alvaro Chacon
7 citations
International Journal of Forecasting
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
3.43
article

An overview of the effects of algorithm use on judgmental biases affecting forecasting

Esther Kaufmann, Alvaro Chacon
article en
7 citations

Abstract

In the realm of forecasting, judgmental biases often hinder efficiency and accuracy. Algorithms present a promising avenue for decision makers to enhance their forecasting performance. In this overview, we scrutinized the occurrence of the most relevant judgmental biases affecting forecasting across 162 papers, drawing from four recent reviews and papers published in forecasting journals, specifically focusing on the use of algorithms. Thirty-three of the 162 papers (20.4%) at least briefly mentioned one of twelve judgmental biases affecting forecasting. Our comprehensive analysis suggests that algorithms can potentially mitigate the adverse impacts of biases inherent in human judgment related to forecasting. Furthermore, these algorithms can leverage biases as an advantage, enhancing forecast accuracy. Intriguing revelations have surfaced, focusing mainly on four biases. By providing timely, relevant, well-performing, and consistent algorithmic advice, people can be effectively influenced to improve their forecasts, considering anchoring, availability, inconsistency, and confirmation bias. The findings highlight the gaps in the current research landscape and provide recommendations for practitioners. They also lay the groundwork for future studies on utilizing algorithms (e.g., large language models) and overcoming judgmental biases to improve forecasting performance.

International Journal of ForecastingVol. 41(2)
University of Konstanz (DE), Federico Santa María Technical University (CL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
3.43
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