Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions in 138 Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study uses factor decomposition analysis from the extended framework of Kaya’s identity to determine the factors influencing CO2 emissions in 138 countries worldwide from 2019–2022. The results revealed that CO2 emissions decreased due to economic stagnation caused by COVID-19 from 2019–2020. From 2020–2021, CO2 emissions increased due to economic recovery and increased dependence on fossil energy. However, the timing of recovery varies with income level. In low-income countries, economic recovery progressed more from 2021–2022 than from 2020–2021, which was the opposite of the situation in developed countries. In terms of technological factors, carbon intensity was a factor in increasing emissions in high-income countries during the recovery period, whereas fossil dependency and energy efficiency were factors in increasing emissions in upper-medium- and lower-medium-income countries, respectively. The results of the decoupling analysis indicate that lower-medium-income countries tend to exhibit undesirable decoupling. Furthermore, from an analysis of the transition of decoupling states, it is necessary to reduce the carbon intensity and fossil fuel dependency to achieve a desirable decoupling relationship between CO2 and economic development.