Mobile Financial Services and the Shadow Economy in Southern African Countries: Does Regulatory Quality Matter?

This study investigated the impact of mobile financial services on the shadow economy in Southern Africa countries and explored how regulatory quality moderates this relationship. Utilising panel data from 1993 to 2022, this study employed dynamic common-correlated effect (DCCE) and dynamic seemingly unrelated regression (DSUR) methods to assess long-run effects. The findings reveal that increased mobile financial services adoption markedly diminishes the scale of the underground economy by enhancing transaction transparency and accessibility, thus drawing more participants into the formal economy. The results are consistent across DCCE and DSUR estimations. Additionally, improvements in regulatory quality further diminish the shadow economy by bolstering trust and compliance within the financial system, suggesting that well-crafted regulations enhance the effectiveness of mobile financial services. Economic and financial sector developments also contribute to a reduced shadow economy, indicating that broader economic growth and advanced financial systems facilitate formal sector participation. Conversely, larger public sector expenditures appear to expand the shadow economy enterprises, likely due to inefficient resource allocation and increased fiscal burdens that push economic activities underground. Policy recommendations include the need to expand mobile financial services infrastructure, enhance financial literacy, and optimise financial regulatory frameworks to balance oversight with innovation encouragement.