Accounting for Climate and Inherent Soil Quality in United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Analysis: A Case Study of the State of Arizona (USA)

Climate change and land degradation (LD) are some of the most critical challenges for humanity. Land degradation (LD) is the focus of the United Nations (UN) Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15: Life on Land). Land degradation is composed of inherent and anthropogenic LD, which are both impacted by inherent soil quality (SQ) and climate. Conventional LD analysis does not take into account inherent SQ because it is not the result of land use/land cover change (LULC), which can be tracked using remote sensing platforms. Furthermore, traditional LD analysis does not link anthropogenic LD to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses one of the indicators for LD for SDG 15 (15.3.1: Proportion of land that is degraded over the total land area) to demonstrate how to account for inherent SQ in anthropogenic LD with corresponding GHG emissions over time using the state of Arizona (AZ) as a case study. The inherent SQ of AZ is skewed towards low-SQ soils (Entisols: 29.3%, Aridisols: 49.4%), which, when combined with climate, define the inherent LD status. Currently, 8.6% of land in AZ has experienced anthropogenic LD primarily because of developments (urbanization) (42.8%) and agriculture (32.2%). All six soil orders have experienced varying degrees of anthropogenic LD. All land developments in AZ can be linked to damages from LD, with 4862.6 km2 developed, resulting in midpoint losses of 8.7 × 1010 kg of total soil carbon (TSC) and a midpoint social cost of carbon dioxide emissions (SC-CO2) of $14.7B (where B = billion = 109, USD). Arizona was not land degradation neutral (LDN) based on an increase (+9.6%) in the anthropogenic LD overall and an increase in developments (+29.5%) between 2001 and 2021. Considering ongoing climate change impacts in AZ, this increase in urbanization represents reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA) because of the increased population. The state of AZ has 82.0% of the total state area for nature-based solutions (NBS). However, this area is dominated by soils with inherently low SQ (e.g., Entisols, Aridisols, etc.), which complicates efforts for climate change adaptation.