Monte Carlo simulation of community microgrid operation: Business prospects in the Brazilian regulatory framework

Microgrids offer an innovative solution to modern energy challenges, providing enhanced reliability and resilience to distribution systems while accommodating the growing presence of distributed energy resources (DER). However, realizing the potential benefits of microgrids requires a comprehensive assessment of their complex technical and economic aspects. This paper introduces a dedicated techno-economic evaluation model for community microgrids (CMGs) while considering a consumer-centric internal market. Uncertainties arising from load variations and intermittent generation are addressed via Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed internal market model aligns with the Brazilian regulatory framework and enables currently unavailable innovations, such as a community internal market; however, the model can be adapted to the context of any system. We demonstrate the capabilities of the methodology by presenting a case study involving a real microgrid, where economic benefits are shared among all consumers. This study, derived from a research and development (R&D) project, underscores its practical relevance in advancing cleaner and more sustainable energy systems. • Technical-economic evaluation model for community microgrids. • Uncertainty representation through the Monte Carlo simulation method. • A novel community market model enhancing microgrid economic viability. • Performance assessment of the proposed model using a real microgrid case. • Analysis of tariff changes as incentives for microgrid formation.