Yield More and Feed More: Unraveling the Multi‐Scale Determinants of the Spatial Variation in Plastic‐Mulched Farmland Across China

ABSTRACT The global expansion of plastic‐mulched farmland, including China, raises concerns due to its rapid pace. Intensified tillage practices fulfill high food demand with limited farmland by increasing yields but harm the environment and health. Limited understanding exists regarding the underlying mechanisms of spatial diversity. This study uses spatial regression techniques to identify the multi‐scale patterns and driving forces. Nationally, fertility, frequent disasters, population density, and industrialized vegetable bases foster expansion, yet annual precipitation and urbanization‐related factors may impose constraints. Regionally, impacts are at times uncertain and contradicted. In agricultural optimization and development regions (AODRs), the distribution of plastic‐mulched farmland is especially relevant to soil fertility, household income, and planning factors, but is subject to land slope. Moderate development regions (MDRs) with unfavorable conditions witness plastic‐mulched farmland growth propelled by precipitation, temperature, and factors like E‐commerce, fixed assets, and road infrastructure. We have quantified these impacts through policy simulations, and identify that their extents can be largely different across regions. For example, adding one key vegetable county in the plan is assumed to increase the proportion of plastic‐mulched farmland by 0.229% in MDRs while only by 0.089% in AODRs. Crucially, adapting state‐led food localization initiatives is imperative.