Who actualizes postpartum contraceptive intentions? A trajectory cluster analysis

Contraceptive intention is an important woman-centered indicator for family planning. Yet, few studies have examined the determinants of women or couples actualizing their contraceptive intentions. We leverage panel data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) survey in Ethiopia to examine these dynamics among a pregnancy cohort, over the first year postpartum. Using cluster analysis on intent-to-use trajectories, we find distinct patterns across wealth categories, education levels, and regions. Additionally, we find that receiving family planning counseling in both antenatal and postnatal care visits led to a higher likelihood of intending to use. However, counseling did not increase the odds of actualization. We argue that examining actualization through model-based approaches like cluster analysis generates better insight into woman-centered contraceptive demand and provides stronger evidence for strengthening postpartum family planning interventions, than quantifying contraceptive use alone. Modeling postpartum actualization trajectories can shed light on the barriers to women's and couple's reproductive autonomy and inform future investments in both upstream development of better contraceptive methods and downstream implementation.