Research on the impact of digital financial inclusion and environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading-based on spatial Durbin model analysis

In the context of building a modern industrial system, digital finance inclusive (DFI) and environmental regulation (ER) have become significant drivers of industrial structure upgrading. Amid the rapid development of DFI and the tightening of ER, high-quality development goals have been set. From a spatial perspective, can DFI, ER, and their interactions positively impact China’s industrial structure? Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, empirical analysis is conducted using the Spatial Durbin Model and the Threshold Model. The study find that, firstly, in spatial regression, both DFI and ER significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structures, with notable spatial spillover effects. Secondly, it was discovered that the interaction between DFI and ER have a significant negative impact on industrial structure upgrading, with a pronounced negative spatial spillover effect, indicating a "siphon effect," which is a new finding. In the threshold model regression, it is found that both DFI and ER exhibit a single-threshold effect, while their interaction shows a double-threshold effect. In the heterogeneity test, it is found that the interaction between DFI and ER on industrial structure upgrading is greatly influenced by regional factors, with significant differences across different regions. Therefore, it is crucial to pay attention to the threshold values in the threshold effect while considering the unique economic and geographical attributes of each region to formulate targeted strategies.