Net Migration By Age: The Flow-Difference Approach for Estimation and Forecasting
We present the flow-difference method to disaggregate total net migration by age. It models the age-specific flows of in-migration and out-migration to derive age-specific net migration, even in the absence of data on such flows. We show that the resulting net migration predictions are greatly improved over existing methods that model only the net migration totals.
Authors
- Adrian E. Raftery (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6589-301X)
- James Raymer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6588-8985)
- Hana Ševčíková (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7896-1704)
Institutions
- Australian National University (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Demography
- Published
- 2026-11-06
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12901523
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 21.71