The dynamics of increasing mineral resources and improving resource efficiency: Prospects for mid- and long-term security of phosphorus supply

• Population growth and GDP driven diet change will increase phosphorus demand to 2060 by 40 percent. • Total use efficiency (TUE), the ratio of phosphorus intake from food to the phosphorus required to grow food, is very low at 5 to 10 %. • Phosphorus flow data suggest a large, underappreciated recycling potential for phosphorus in organic waste. • The lasky rule, i.e. the exponential growth of cumulative tonnage with decreasing ore content, applies to phosphorus. • Rising market prices allow mining of lower grade ore, deeper mining, etc. and cause an increase in marketable phosphate supply. We analyze the dynamics of phosphorus demand and supply in the context of the rapid mid-term increase in food demand (40 % by 2060) and mineral phosphorus demand increase. Including losses at mines, about 93 % of the 319 million tons of phosphate rock containing 30 % P2O5 were needed for food production in 2023. The total use efficiency (TUE) of phosphorus for food, the ratio of the amount of phosphorus ingested by humans to the amount of mineral and natural phosphorus used to produce food, is only 5–10 %. Phosphorus flow data indicate high global recycling potentials for inorganic wastes (especially from animal bones) and agricultural production that is not well assessed. Phosphate rock will be available at reasonable cost for well over a thousand years. The following factors interact to increase reserves: The low price of phosphate rock (compared to energy costs) and a high average grade of mined phosphorus (17 % P2O5) allow for mining lower concentrations with improved technology and higher costs for viable selling prices. The cumulative tonnage mined increases exponentially with declining mean ore grades. Phosphorus lifetime will be extended significantly by increasing the TUE and recycling, both combined with a high level of control and creative solutions.