When does spillover from marine protected areas indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch?

Spillover is a term commonly applied to the dispersal of fish and/or larvae from inside a closed area to areas open to fishing. The presence of spillover is often quantified by measuring gradients in attributes such as abundance or catch rates near the boundaries of closed areas or by measuring higher abundance inside closed areas compared to outside. It is commonly assumed that such gradients or ratios indicate that the closed area has benefitted the fishery and the total abundance of fish. We explore this assumption using a spatially explicit model of closed areas with different intensities of fishing and fish movement, and we find that such gradients will be expected any time there is higher abundance inside the closed area. However, such gradients do not necessarily indicate a benefit to the fishery either in terms of total catch or catch rate, and unless pre-closure fishing was intense, total abundance is not expected to rise significantly. We examine case studies that argue that spillover exists and leads to fishery benefits. We then evaluate the evidence for net benefits in these case studies and find those with evidence of net benefits all come from places where fishing pressure was intense. While most analysis come from quite small coastal closed areas, two studies of very large open-ocean closed areas are discussed, and we find that both suggest little overall impact on the tuna populations that support the main commercial fisheries affected by the closures in question.