Navigating complexities in forest visitation modelling: Intersecting environmental, social, and public health factors during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected human-environment systems, including human leisure behaviour and travel destinations choices. Multiple research studies reported remarkable anomalies in visitation volumes in outdoor recreation and tourism destinations, such as forests. Yet, the large majority of studies focused on the sole effect of the pandemic on visitation numbers, disregarding the dynamic nature of outdoor recreation and tourism, affected also by other determinants. Therefore, the aim of our study was to understand the influence of various environmental, social and public health factors on visits to forests during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results are based upon empirical data collected during long-term visitor monitoring in three forest destinations in Poland. Hourly visitor counts were registered via pyroelectric sensors (Eco-Counter) located along recreational trails between 2020 and 2022. Additionally, national public health and meteorological variables, along with selected indices of Google Mobility Reports were integrated into the final database. Boosted Regression Trees were applied to model forest visitation. The results show significant influence of multiple factors on the magnitude of forest visitation. There are large regional differences in the weight of specific determinants. Both seasonal tourism and the seasons had a significant impact on the frequency of public visits to forest areas. As the number of restrictions related to COVID-19 increased, the number of people visiting the forests decreased. Factors such as free time, day length, temperature, stringency index (this index records the strictness of government policies against COVID-19), number of COVID-19 new cases and people mobility in different places influenced forest visitation. The outcomes of this study substantially contribute to the ongoing international debate concerning effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on outdoor tourism and recreation. It highlights the necessity of integrating social and environmental determinants, next to the indices describing the COVID-19 pandemic, to better understand the complex nature of forest use to be able to take evidence-based decisions related to public health preparedness planning and forest management in future. • Information on the mobility of society in forest areas from long-term monitoring can support forest management and adapt it to the needs of society. • An increase in the number of people using forest areas can increase society's expectations for the development of forest areas, including the combination of different forest functions. • In addition to the indices describing the COVID-19 pandemic, social and environmental factors must also be included to better understand the complex nature of forest use in order to make evidence-based decisions related to public health preparedness planning and forest management in future crisis situations.