How city shrinkage affect public service provision for disadvantaged groups? Evidence from China

• City shrinkage has significantly widened the gap in public services for people with disabilities. • Places stratification within shrinking cities has been enlarged in terms of public services. • Disadvantaged people in non-central areas in depopulated cities are facing significant inequities. • Policy-makings for disadvantaged people should be tailored to urban dynamics. Previous research overlooks the impact of city shrinkage on disadvantaged groups. This study explores the relationship between city shrinkage and public service delivery for people with disabilities. First, principal component analysis was employed to measure the public service facility coverage index for people with disabilities, highlighting the spatial characteristics in China. Second, a regression discontinuity design was utilized to analyze the causal relationship between city shrinkage and public service. Third, ordinary least squares regression was used to identify key factors affecting public services coverage. The results showed that the population change in prefecture-level cities has widened the gap in public service delivery for people with disabilities. Places stratification within cities has been enlarged by city shrinkage. Notably, the impact of city shrinkage is predominantly observed in the periphery of cities; due to better-developed public service facilities in urban centers, the effect of city shrinkage is less pronounced there. Additionally, factors such as financial autonomy and disabled population density significantly influence the delivery of public services for people with disabilities. These findings suggest that policy-making should be tailored to urban dynamics and shrinking cities should adopt targeted strategies to enhance public services for disadvantaged people.