Riots, Civil Resistance, and External Intervention in the Failed 2022 Kazakhstan Revolution

Abstract Research on revolution commonly focuses on successful regime transition. While useful for understanding historical change, analyses of positive outcomes tend to select on the dependent variable. This study turns attention to a negative case in the context of Kazakhstan—a polity that had experienced political stability for three decades until a small-scale set of protests against fuel prices spread nationally. Protesters implemented a heterogeneous collection of strategies ranging from civil disobedience to unarmed violence and violence. Key political structures and institutions were taken over including state buildings, police stations, as well as an international airport. In response, the government utilized severe state repression which failed and led to the incumbent calling upon the Collective Security Treaty Organization ( CSTO ) to intervene with troops. In spite of achieving tactical advantages and spurring defection, the movement was suppressed by the CSTO which can be attributed to disorganization and a lack of unified leadership.