Trusting the Courts: Exploring the Link Between Populism, Trust in Courts, and Democracy in Brazil

Under which conditions do people tend to mistrust Courts, and what is the association between mistrust in Courts and perception of democracy? I argue that exposure to populist leaders and their antiestablishment disruptive rhetoric increases mistrust and its association with dissatisfaction with democracy. However, during times of crisis, courts can fortify democratic principles, thereby weakening this association. This argument is supported by data from a nationwide survey in Brazil during critical years (2018–2020) and the Latinobarómetro survey (2000–2020). Findings show that trust in courts, particularly the Federal Supreme Court (STF), was lowest during Bolsonaro's election and his first year in office, with a strong association between court mistrust and dissatisfaction with democracy. In 2020, when the STF defended federalism and equality against presidential overreach, trust in courts rose significantly, and the connection with democratic dissatisfaction weakened. This study adds to the literature on democratic erosion under populist regimes and highlights the STF's role in protecting Brazilian democracy.