Livelihood vulnerability of rural households to climate variability and change: An agroecological system-based approach in northwestern Ethiopia

Ethiopia is widely acknowledged to be extremely vulnerable to climatic variability and change. Its agricultural sector, which is particularly susceptible to risks associated with rainfall variability, represents a major source of vulnerability. Household livelihood vulnerability varies across different agroecological zones (AEZs). This research aimed to investigate farmers' susceptibility to climate variability and change in northwestern Ethiopia. A total of 405 households from three AEZs (lowland, highland, and midland) were chosen through simple random sampling. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were also conducted to complement and validate the numerical data. To assess the household vulnerability levels, the social, economic, and environmental indicators were aggregated, and the LVI and LVI-IPCC index were employed. The study's findings indicated significant variation in livelihood vulnerability indices, profiles, and indicators across agroecological zones (AEZs). The midland AEZ exhibited low exposure, higher adaptive capacity, and low vulnerability, while the lowland AEZ showed higher vulnerability, weaker adaptive capacity, and greater exposure compared to the midland and highland AEZs. The LVI-IPCC analysis corroborated these findings, with values of 0.128 for the midland AEZ, 0.168 for the highland, and 0.180 for the lowland. The variation is due to differences in agroecological and socioeconomic factors among households. The results indicate the necessity of implementing adaptation strategies specifically tailored to the agroecological systems in the study area. Such an approach is essential for effectively reducing vulnerability among households engaged in mixed crop-livestock agriculture. Adaptation measures developed from these assessments are both applicable and relevant to local conditions, as they are grounded in the community's long-term realities.