Monetary policy of Ukraine during the war

The purpose of this article is an in-depth statistical analysis of the military monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The article examines how the monetary policy strategy, administrative restrictions, indicators of the money market of Ukraine and macroeconomic indicators changed during February 2022 – April 2024. Based on the conducted statistical analysis, it was found that the administrative restrictions implemented by the Regulator in relation to individuals and legal entities achieved the desired result. Indicators of demand and supply of currency on the market have halved. As the balance of payments of Ukraine shows, the withdrawal of currency abroad in the form of credit payments, interest, dividends, and rent also decreased, which significantly reduced the pressure on the national currency, which is clearly observed when analyzing the balance of payments of Ukraine.In the context of the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the results of the study showed that thanks to the measures taken in the monetary policy, the National Bank managed to restrain the pressure on the national currency and to stabilize inflation by the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022, and already in the fourth quarter of 2023 it was possible to return inflation within the inflation target. However, in connection with the long-term management of the fixed exchange rate regime, the interventions of the National Bank increased significantly, causing considerable pressure on international reserves and creating a noticeable dependence of Ukraine on the financial aid of international partners. In addition, there are other caveats. The record amounts of currency outside the banks signal about the continuation of panicky moods and a decrease in confidence in the banking system. In addition, administrative currency restrictions negatively affected the gap between the total volume of import and export operations, which in the long run may hinder the further economic development of Ukraine. Despite the challenges, such as the growth of the volume of currency outside the banks and the noticeable dependence on international aid, it is important to emphasize that the implemented measures helped to reduce the risks and improve the financial stability of the country, which reflects the ability of the National Bank to respond effectively to economic challenges and ensure the stability of the financial system in times of crisis.