Model uncertainty assessment for symmetric and right-skewed distributions

In actuarial modeling, right-skewed distributions are of paramount importance. Typically, they have the property of becoming unimodal and symmetric after applying some increasing concave transformation $ \mathsf {T} $ T (e.g. log-transformation). In what follows, we refer to them as $ \mathsf {T} $ T-unimodal $ \mathsf {T} $ T-symmetric distributions. In this paper, we derive attainable bounds for the Value-at-Risk for such distributions when some partial information is available, such as information on the support, median, or certain moments. We also derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the Range Value-at-Risk under knowledge of unimodality, symmetry, mean, variance, and possibly bounded support. In passing, we provide a generalization of the Gauss inequality for symmetric distributions with known support. We show how these bounds improve on bounds available in the literature using a real-world automobile insurance claims dataset.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
Published
2024-11-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2024.2421852
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.49

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article

Model uncertainty assessment for symmetric and right-skewed distributions

Carole Bernard, Steven Vanduffel, Rodrigue Kazzi
1 citations
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
0.49
article

Model uncertainty assessment for symmetric and right-skewed distributions

Carole Bernard, Steven Vanduffel, Rodrigue Kazzi
article en
1 citations

Abstract

In actuarial modeling, right-skewed distributions are of paramount importance. Typically, they have the property of becoming unimodal and symmetric after applying some increasing concave transformation $ \mathsf {T} $ T (e.g. log-transformation). In what follows, we refer to them as $ \mathsf {T} $ T-unimodal $ \mathsf {T} $ T-symmetric distributions. In this paper, we derive attainable bounds for the Value-at-Risk for such distributions when some partial information is available, such as information on the support, median, or certain moments. We also derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the Range Value-at-Risk under knowledge of unimodality, symmetry, mean, variance, and possibly bounded support. In passing, we provide a generalization of the Gauss inequality for symmetric distributions with known support. We show how these bounds improve on bounds available in the literature using a real-world automobile insurance claims dataset.

Scandinavian Actuarial JournalVol. 2025(5)
Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Grenoble Ecole de Management (FR)
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 29%
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
0.49
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