Policy predictive model for better management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: economic-organisational implications in the Italian healthcare system

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents a significant public health problem in Italy, with a high prevalence and a substantial economic burden on the National Health Service (NHS). Effective management of the disease is crucial for reducing exacerbations and improving patients’ quality of life. Methods: This study employs a dynamic predictive model to assess the economic impact of implementing three specific health policies aimed at improving COPD management over a five-year horizon. The analysis is conducted from the perspective of the NHS, focusing on the direct costs associated with disease management. Results: The implementation of the proposed policies demonstrated potential significant savings in direct healthcare costs. The first policy, focused on increasing therapeutic adherence, generated an estimated savings of 202 million €. The second, concerning the wider use of triple therapies, led to savings of about 142 million €. Finally, the third policy, aimed at reducing the delay in prescribing appropriate therapies, contributed to an additional saving of over 175 million € in the time horizon considered in the analysis. Overall, these results suggest a substantial improvement opportunity in COPD management, with significant economic benefits for the Italian NHS. Conclusion: The study confirms the importance of targeted policies in the management of COPD, highlighting how strategic interventions can lead to significant resource savings while simultaneously improving patient care. These results provide a solid foundation for further research and serve as a useful guide for decision-makers in planning effective intervention strategies, aimed at optimizing resources and enhancing disease management in the Italian healthcare context.