Spatial Variation and Stock Estimation of Soil Organic Carbon in Cropland in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in cropland is not only instrumental in combating climate change, but it also significantly enhances soil fertility. It is imperative to precisely and accurately quantify the SOC sequestration potential and assess the relative significance of various multiple explanatory factors in a timely manner. We studied 555 soil samples from the cropland topsoil (0–15 cm) across the black soil region in Northeast China between the years 2021 and 2022, and we identified 16 significant impact factors using one-way ANOVA and Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. In addition, the Random Forest (RF) model outperformed the Cubist model in predicting the spatial distribution of SOC contents. The predicted ranges of SOC contents span from 5.24 to 43.93 g/kg, with the average SOC content using the RF model standing at 17.24 g/kg in Northeast China. Stepwise regression and structural equation modeling revealed climate and topography as key factors affecting SOC distribution. The SOC density in the study area varied from 0.51 to 9.11 kg/m2, averaging 3.30 kg/m2, with a total SOC stock of 1226.64 Tg. The SOC sequestration potential in the study area was estimated at 3057.65 Tg by the categorical maximum method, with a remaining sequestration capacity of 1831.01 Tg. The study area has great potential for SOC sequestration. We hope to transform the theoretical value of SOC sequestration potential into actual SOC sequestration capacity by promoting sustainable agriculture and additional strategies. Our findings provide insights into the global soil conditions, SOC storage capacities, and effective SOC management strategies.